OPINION: This article contains commentary which may reflect the author's opinion
Despite Democrats holding a slight 0.4 percent lead on the generic ballot, well inside the sampling error, RealClearPolitics predicts Republicans will pick up two seats and regain control of the House.
According to RCP’s average of polls, Biden has a 42 percent approval rating and a 52.8% unfavorable rating. Compared to Kamala Harris, who has a favorable rating of 36.3 percent to a negative rating of 51.2 percent.
Based on RCP averages, 40.7 percent of respondents find Donald Trump to be favorable, compared to 54.0 percent for whom he is unfavorable. While he is not on the 2022 midterm ballot, several of his endorsed candidates are.
Republicans were widely believed to sweep the House due to Biden’s abysmal handling of… well, everything.
The overturning of Roe v Wade changed that, and the midterms will most likely be much closer than previously thought as liberals have been motivated to get to the polls in the hopes of doing something about abortion.
While the numbers go back and forth and there are many opinions on which way the House will go, one top Democrat believes it will still go to Republicans.
“Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer privately told a group of Democratic senators Monday night that Speaker Nancy Pelosi is “in trouble” and Democrats are going to lose the House,” according to Punchbowl News.
These comments came during a dinner at Trattoria Alberto, an Italian restaurant on Capitol Hill frequented by lawmakers from both parties. Senators at the dinner included Chris Coons of Delaware, Mark Kelly of Arizona, Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, Tom Carper of Delaware, John Hickenlooper of Colorado, and Dick Durbin of Illinois.
The comments are in stark contrast to Pelosi’s declaration in recent days that not only would Democrats keep the House but they’d add to their slim majority.
During the dinner, Schumer let loose on a whole range of topics. Schumer spoke loudly and his remarks were overheard by other patrons in the restaurant – and confirmed by multiple sources.
In the event that the election were held today, Schumer said there was “a 60% chance we hold the Senate, and a 40% chance we hold the House.”
Schumer also said that House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy “sucks up” to Donald Trump.
Schumer also predicted that Trump would run for election.
“Schumer said Democrats won’t be able to win the Senate race in Iowa. Democrat Mike Franken, a former Navy vice admiral, is running against longtime GOP Sen. Chuck Grassley,” Punchbowl continued.
With Kelly at the table, Schumer said the Arizona Senate race would tighten if tech billionaire Peter Thiel started spending money to boost Republican Blake Masters.
On the legislative front, Schumer said Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-W.Va.) claim that taxing the rich is akin to “inflation” for wealthy Americans is “ridiculous.”
Schumer criticized former New York Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo over redistricting, blaming Cuomo for Democrats failure to pick up House seats during redistricting.
Schumer’s office declined to comment.
The midterm elections are just around the corner in November.
An analysis in the New York Times on Monday seemed to tame Democratic expectations for the midterms.
It suggested in its newsletter, “The Morning,” that recent polling suggesting Democrats are making gains may be incorrect again, based on the analysis of final polls from 2020, which overstated Biden’s strength in several states, including North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Ohio, where key Senate races will be decided.
David Leonhardt, a senior writer for the Times, noted:
The polls reported that Biden had a small lead in North Carolina, but he lost the state to Donald Trump. The polls also showed Biden running comfortably ahead in Wisconsin, yet he won it by less than a percentage point. In Ohio, the polls pointed to a tight race; instead, Trump won it easily.
In each of these states — and some others — pollsters failed to reach a representative sample of voters. One factor seems to be that Republican voters are more skeptical of mainstream institutions and are less willing to respond to a survey. If that’s true, polls will often understate Republican support, until pollsters figure out how to fix the problem.
This possibility offers reason to wonder whether Democrats are really doing as well in the midterm elections as the conventional wisdom holds. Recent polls suggest that Democrats are favored to keep control of the Senate narrowly, while losing control of the House, also narrowly.
“One factor seems to be that Republican voters are more skeptical of mainstream institutions and are less willing to respond to a survey,” he continued. “If that’s true, polls will often understate Republican support, until pollsters figure out how to fix the problem.”
A chief political analyst at the paper, Nate Cohn, added: “Just about every election cycle, there’s an argument for why, this time, things might be different — different from the expectations set by historical trends and key factors like the state of the economy or the president’s approval rating.”