Kari Lake Could Win in Arizona Senate Race

OPINION:  This article contains commentary which may reflect the author’s opinion

While Kari Lake, the Republican candidate for Arizona governor, may not have initially succeeded in her run to become the state’s next governor, there is good news for her.

It was found in a new poll that Lake is still a favorite in Copper State and has a good chance to become its next senator as a result of this. Despite Lake’s court battle over the November governor’s election, an early poll analyzing the 2024 US Senate race in Arizona has found that Lake is in the lead in an election that is likely to be a three-way race, indicating that she may win the election should she choose to run for Senate.

It is estimated that Lake leads Democratic Representative Ruben Gallego by 4 points, and by 22 points over incumbent Senator Kyrsten Sinema, who switched her party registration from a Democrat to a Republican, according to the Blueprint Polling survey.

“An early 2023 survey of likely general election voters illustrates that Senator Kyrsten Sinema’s path to
reelection is both complicated and unprecedented. Sinema runs a distant third in a hypothetical three-way race in the general that also includes 2022 GOP gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake and Democratic
Congressman Ruben Gallego,” according to the survey.

The survey also revealed the following topline findings:

Kari Lake polls at 36% in a three-way Senate race with Gallego and Sinema. The congressman follows closely at 32% while the incumbent polls less than 14%. One in six voters are undecided. Sinema draws support from both Republicans and Democrats—she gets the vote of 15% of Biden 2020 voters and 11% of Trump 2020 voters.

23% of Biden voters remain undecided in the race (compared to 13% of Trump voters), suggesting that some Democrats may be waiting to see how the race shakes out before backing a candidate. Still, Sinema’s best hope for a return to the US Senate may be for the Republican party to nominate a candidate so flawed that moderate and conservative voters would abandon that person for the Independent Sinema.

Sinema gets very little support from Hispanic voters, garnering 3% of their vote (Gallego leads Lake 41%-39% with this group), while Sinema gets the support of 17% of white Arizonans. Notably, Gallego does better with women by about 4% than with men and Sinema enjoys a similar positive differential with men.

Lake is still fighting to ensure there was a fair election in the November for Arizona governor through a still on-going court battle.

Two appeals were filed by Lake related to her loss in the Arizona gubernatorial race in November. In addition, Lake requested that the Arizona Supreme Court hear her case, but the court denied her request.

“Maricopa County Superior Court Judge Peter Thompson ruled against Lake’s challenge after finding the court was not presented with clear and convincing evidence in the widespread misconduct, she alleged influenced the election results,” Fox News reported. “Lake, on Wednesday, filed an appeal with the Appeals Court on Judge Thompson’s ruling. She also filed a motion to send the appeal to the Arizona Supreme Court, asking to skip a step with the Appeals Court. Arizona’s Supreme Court denied the request to transfer the appeal.”

According to the Arizona Supreme Court’s decision, “no good cause appears to transfer the matter to this court.”

On Wednesday night, Lake updated her followers via Twitter: “My court case will be going before the Appeals Court prior to the Arizona Supreme Court because it’s already been scheduled for review. This decision was done without prejudice & I am confident the case will end up in their hands eventually. We’re moving forward.”

In her appeal, Lake is asking the Arizona Court of Appeals to reconsider all 10 counts of a lawsuit that were thrown out by Maricopa County Superior Court Judge Peter Thompson earlier this year.

In addition, Lake is asking the appeals court to reverse the decision ordering her to pay Hobbs $33,000 in fees.

Hobbs had requested sanctions against Lake from Judge Peter Thompson, but the request was denied.

In spite of that, Hobbs was awarded just over $33,000 by the judge in order to compensate him for the costs he incurred in trying to retain expert witnesses for a two-day trial that Lake brought after challenging the results of the November gubernatorial election.

In his decision, Judge Thompson wrote: “Every one of Plaintiff’s witnesses — and for that matter, Defendants’ witnesses as well — was asked about any personal knowledge of both intentional misconduct and intentional misconduct directed to impact the 2022 General Election. Every single witness before the Court disclaimed any personal knowledge of such misconduct. The Court cannot accept speculation or conjecture in place of clear and convincing evidence.”

The court received over 200 statements detailing people’s frustrations trying to vote on Election Day in Maricopa County. Nevertheless, Judge Thompson said that many of those voters were able to vote.

Judge Thompson ruled that Lake’s team failed to prove that voters on Election Day were denied ballots.

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