In order to restrain Democrats, Republicans only need to gain four seats in the House.
House Republicans are beginning to doubt their chances in the midterm elections, however, causing concern among some of GOP House Leader Kevin McCarthy’s allies.
In spite of Republican lawmakers’ belief that the GOP will be able to regain the House this fall – due to historical trends in their favor – there are new concerns within the party that Democrats might be able to undermine the party’s gains.
Republicans who break the law in an attempt to sway elections won’t help, though.
An absentee ballot fraud scheme led to the arrest of an election commissioner in New York by the FBI.
“Jason Schofield was arraigned before U.S. Magistrate Judge Daniel J. Stewart on Tuesday on an indictment charging him with unlawfully using the names and dates of birth of voters to fraudulently apply for absentee ballots for elections held in Rensselaer County in 2021,” according to Conservative Brief.
Schofield, a Republican, was released on his own recognizance until his trial scheduled before U.S. District Judge Mae A. D’Agostino.
“He is accused of unlawfully possessing and using the names and dates of birth of voters in connection with absentee ballot applications that he submitted to a New York State Board of Elections website in 2021. The indictment alleges that Schofield applied for absentee ballots in the names of people who had no interest in voting in 2021 and did not request absentee ballots or Schofield’s assistance in voting or obtaining absentee ballots,” Fox News added.
“In some of these instances, the indictment explained, Schofield also took possession of the absentee ballots issued to these voters, brought them to voters, and had them sign absentee ballot envelopes without actually voting. This allegedly allowed Schofield or another person to cast votes in these voters’ names in Rensselaer County’s 2021 primary and general elections.”
“If convicted, Schofield would face up to 5 years in prison, a fine of up to $250,000, and a term of post-imprisonment supervised release of up to 3 years on each of the 12 counts.”
“Jason T. Schofield was arrested outside his residence Tuesday morning by the FBI and charged with fraudulently obtaining and processing absentee ballots last year using personal information of at least eight voters without their permission.” https://t.co/2hKodPXXz9
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) September 13, 2022
— Brendan Lyons (@Brendan_LyonsTU) September 13, 2022
The arrest goes to show that despite Democrats saying elections are more secure than ever, they really aren’t.
The midterm elections are just around the corner in November.
An analysis in the New York Times on Monday seemed to tame Democratic expectations for the midterms.
It suggested in its newsletter, “The Morning,” that recent polling suggesting Democrats are making gains may be incorrect again, based on the analysis of final polls from 2020, which overstated Biden’s strength in several states, including North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Ohio, where key Senate races will be decided.
David Leonhardt, a senior writer for the Times, noted:
The polls reported that Biden had a small lead in North Carolina, but he lost the state to Donald Trump. The polls also showed Biden running comfortably ahead in Wisconsin, yet he won it by less than a percentage point. In Ohio, the polls pointed to a tight race; instead, Trump won it easily.
In each of these states — and some others — pollsters failed to reach a representative sample of voters. One factor seems to be that Republican voters are more skeptical of mainstream institutions and are less willing to respond to a survey. If that’s true, polls will often understate Republican support, until pollsters figure out how to fix the problem.
This possibility offers reason to wonder whether Democrats are really doing as well in the midterm elections as the conventional wisdom holds. Recent polls suggest that Democrats are favored to keep control of the Senate narrowly, while losing control of the House, also narrowly.
“One factor seems to be that Republican voters are more skeptical of mainstream institutions and are less willing to respond to a survey,” he continued. “If that’s true, polls will often understate Republican support, until pollsters figure out how to fix the problem.”
A chief political analyst at the paper, Nate Cohn, added: “Just about every election cycle, there’s an argument for why, this time, things might be different — different from the expectations set by historical trends and key factors like the state of the economy or the president’s approval rating.”
According to RealClearPolitics, Republicans are expected to pick up two seats while regaining control of the House – despite Democrats holding a slight 0.4 percent lead on the generic ballot, still well inside the sampling error.
RCP’s average of polls shows Biden’s approval rating at 42 percent compared with his unfavorable rating at 52.8%. Kamala Harris is less favorable, with 36.3 percent against 51.2 percent for unfavorable.
A total of 40.7 percent of respondents find Donald Trump to be favorable, while 54.0 percent find him unfavorable, according to RCP averages. Several candidates he has endorsed are on the ballot, even though he is not on it.
In a recent Rasmussen Reports survey, 52 percent of voters support the impeachment of Joe Biden, while 42 percent opposed it. Republican support amounted to 77 percent, independent support 50 percent, and Democratic support 32 percent, according to The Washington Examiner.